OpenAI annualised revenues $20B less than previously signalled

Gift link: https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/f77156... Apparently they overstated revenue in an attempt to try to provide a direct comparison with Anthropic's reported metrics. From the article: "According to a person with knowledge of the matter, the discrepancy arose from attempts by OpenAI’s own investors to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic’s annualised revenues. The pair calculate the figure in different ways, with Anthropic including the revenue from sales via cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not. Efforts to “gross up” OpenAI’s annualised revenue led to reports that the group’s annualised revenue had hit $40bn in August. The company has since told investors its revenues have grown more than 70 per cent, leading to the $70bn figure"

• TrainedMonkey · 34 minutes ago

  Obviously not the same thing as lying, but Anthropic had also been juicing the revenues with making smart models incredibly verbose. In August my org 3x more in API credits vs July. In September the spend returned to July levels partially because they made models less verbose, but mostly because we've changed how we are using them.

• tonfa · 28 minutes ago

  > Apparently they overstated revenue in an attempt to try to provide a direct comparison with Anthropic's reported metrics. Just to clarify from my understanding of the quote, "they" here is openai investors, not openai.

• mmooss · 21 minutes ago

  All that tells you is that they haven't at all abandoned the disinformation: Now they are blaming Anthropic for it and trying to shift attention to them. You can still learn something from it: Look at what they do, not what they say - look at how sophisticated their public communication is. They deliver that information in the perfect manner - not only the redirection and striking a blow against their rival, but they use an anonymous "person with knowledge of the matter": A named source at OpenAI might betray the self-interest in the statement, but some anonymous third party is just reporting what they know. These guys are very good at it, though that shouldn't surprise you. Look at their product, in one sense a highly effective disinformation machine.

• glitchc · 20 minutes ago

  > Apparently they overstated revenue in an attempt to try to provide a direct comparison with Anthropic's reported metrics. I'm confident both companies are lying about their revenues.

• cactusplant7374 · 10 minutes ago

  The link doesn't work.

Not a good day for OpenAI!

• gizajob · 31 minutes ago

  Not a good day for the entire Nasdaq thanks to Scam A and his magic numbers.

  • zero_shift · 13 minutes ago

    What's plus or minus $20bn between friends?

Is there any understanding of how it's even 50b? Makes no sense to me.

• TrainedMonkey · 32 minutes ago

  It is rarely a challenge to turn $100 into $50.

• rajnathani · 8 minutes ago

  Nvidia’s revenue is more than that per quarter, the demand for AI workloads is through the roof.

It's funny because this is the same thing that startups do all the time

Sam A = SBF 2.0

• zero_shift · 11 minutes ago

  When the dust settles, I reckon OAI will make FTX's losses look like chump change

This is an interesting shift compared to the past where OpenAI would’ve been public a long time ago (due to various regulations) so we would have much more direct insight. Right now we have a ~$1 trillion company which a ton of the “economy” and valuations are based on, with near zero information on how it’s doing.

• outside1234 · 17 minutes ago

  How much money do they have left? It is hard for me to see how OpenAI doesn't fail at this point. There is no business, no moat. Honestly, the best outcome seems like failing up into a Microsoft acquisition at this point.

  • helsinkiandrew · 11 minutes ago

    They’re raising another $30B: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/openai-targets-3...

  • rchaud · 7 minutes ago

    There is a moat: government contracts. Everything from NSF grant reviews, drone warfare, DHS visa processing and Medicare/Medicaid claims processing are up for grabs under the right administration.

  • WinstonSmith84 · 5 minutes ago

    it will fail the day there is a downturn of the economy. That day will be at a 2001 or a 2008 like event - anytime within the next few years (I've no crystal ball, but strong convictions haha). And yes, they will be acquired by a company which will have survived the next crash at a fraction of their currently estimated valuation and we will truly have the next ride of the economy .. many years ahead if 2001 is an example.

• combobyte · 12 minutes ago

  > zero information on how it’s doing I think the fact that we have so little information is the most important information we have. If OpenAI had a sound business plan and was on strong financial footing, they'd have IPO'd. All of this continued stalling and obfuscation can only mean one thing, IMO: OpenAI has no long-term viability and they're desperately hoping for some new breakthrough to reinvent their business model before the VC money faucets turn off for good.

  • surgical_fire · 4 minutes ago

    The same is true for Anthropic, by the way.

    • combobyte · 3 minutes ago

      Yep, I agree. The only 'frontier' any of the big labs are racing towards is the frontier of financial ruin.

• notfromhere · 8 minutes ago

  Nobody is quiet about doing well. And the frenetic release schedule of kinda half baked products tells a story (not a good one)

• whateveracct · 2 minutes ago

  it really is a privatize the gains socialize the losses situation, isn't it? due to the new rules (or lack thereof), public investors didn't have access to all that growth. no way it ever gives you a return like, say, the amazon IPO could've.

Annualised revenue is bullshit revenue for the gullible. My anuallized revenue is about 4.5M. I just need now to get a salary every day.

Does this align with what Zitron was complaining about? Or is it a broken-clock-right-twice-a-day thing? neutral question.

Sam Altman gaslighting investors? Unimaginable

The headline should've been "OpenAI annualised revenues $20B less than previously signalled by us". The FT is just reporting high number to create a story, then a low number to create another story.